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JPM: Strong Headline CPI On Energy Surge

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
  • Headline CPI is estimated to have jumped 0.9% M/M in February largely attributable to a jump in energy prices, which brings the year-ago rate up from 7.5% to 8.0% Y/Y.
  • Energy CPI is estimated to have increased 5.6% M/M, “with gains across different components and particularly strong growth expected for motor fuels”.
  • Food inflation should dip from the 0.88% M/M in Jan but remain firm at 0.7% M/M.
  • Core CPI is seen at 0.46% M/M, the softest monthly change since Sep with the relative slowdown largely from car price measures. It would push the year-ago rate up 0.4pts to 6.4% Y/Y.
  • Manheim used car prices declined in the early part of Feb “but we don’t think that the used vehicle CPI will move lower just yet” – look for 0.5% M/M used, 0.1% M/M new.
  • JPM expect rent measures will be close to recent average firm gains, with tenants rent up 0.43% M/M and owners’ equivalent rent up 0.42% M/M, and an additional boost from lodging away from home (1.8% MM) “as industry data show recent increases in prices”.
  • Moderating items: Apparel prices are seen moderating after a rapid run of price increases lately (0.8% M/M from 1.1%), whilst medical care is also seen slowing (0.3% M/M from 0.6%).
  • Areas of little change: public transportation prices to remain strong as they rise from significantly below pre-pandemic levels (another 1.4% M/M) with communications prices remaining little changed.
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