JPM, WFC and Citi Results Later: Credit Quality The Key Question

US bank reporting starts later today, we see three key themes

• IB trading lines: consensus has FICC down in the low-teens, against a strong 1Q23 and equities down less than this. Primary business has staged something of a recovery but distribution likely uneven. FICC outlook in dynamic rate environment likely to be question point.
• Fed rate outlook: this has clearly moved (similar to ECB) to push rate cuts further out in time which gives the large banks room to upgrade net interest income (NII) guidance. Three months ago, most were guiding for a muted outlook.
• Credit quality: to us, the key question this results season. CRE is in focus, especially post-NYCB events, but private credit is an area regulators and central bankers are trying to gain visibility on and we could see more information on this from the US majors.

Timetable:

1200 JPMorgan & Well Fargo results

1300 Citigroup results

1330 JPMorgan analyst call

1600 Citigroup analyst call

15-Apr Goldman Sachs results

16-Apr Bank of America and Morgan Stanley results