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JPMorgan on Banrep: Explicitly More Hawkish

COLOMBIA
  • Statement pivoted explicitly more hawkish – in line with their call for tightening to begin in September.
  • Their call remains for the policy rate to reach 2.5% by December, and for monetary policy to reach 3.5% by year-end 2022 after a pause in 1H22 during the election cycle.
  • To be sure, 3.5% would still be below neutral and imply more to go in 2023. Although JPM expect the revised fiscal reform to be approved in Congress, the government's own projections acknowledge that debt will continue to move higher in the coming years, underscoring risks of latent financial stability concerns.
  • While BanRep's more hawkish stance should mitigate perceptions that they were falling behind the curve, market conditions amid lingering uncertainty could still put pressure on them to move less gradually than our base-case.
EM BulletHomepageBulletJPMorgan Market News Emerging Market News
EM BulletHomepageBulletJPMorgan Market News Emerging Market News

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