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JPMorgan On Banxico Quarterly Inflation Report, Expectations Survey

MEXICO
  • On inflation, last week’s November meeting minutes showed that Banxico remains concerned about unabated core inflation pressures and the increasingly clear unmooring of longer-term inflation expectations.
  • As JPMorgan noted last week, they expect these two to be the main topics in this week’s quarterly inflation report (QIR).
  • Against this backdrop, the release of Banxico’s economic expectations survey will be important (one day after the QIR is released), as medium-term inflation expectations have been steadily rising, reaching last month a record high above 4% for both headline and core inflation.
  • Failure of expectations to plateau could bring about an even more hawkish central bank, and failure to recede back near 3.5% would support the seeming message of the minutes: high rates for long.
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  • On inflation, last week’s November meeting minutes showed that Banxico remains concerned about unabated core inflation pressures and the increasingly clear unmooring of longer-term inflation expectations.
  • As JPMorgan noted last week, they expect these two to be the main topics in this week’s quarterly inflation report (QIR).
  • Against this backdrop, the release of Banxico’s economic expectations survey will be important (one day after the QIR is released), as medium-term inflation expectations have been steadily rising, reaching last month a record high above 4% for both headline and core inflation.
  • Failure of expectations to plateau could bring about an even more hawkish central bank, and failure to recede back near 3.5% would support the seeming message of the minutes: high rates for long.