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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Free AccessJPMorgan on BCCh - Forecast 125Bp Hike In March
- The Board highlighted concerns on inflation dynamics, as illustrated by December CPI ex-volatiles with special emphasis on goods prices. The Board noted significant risks to the inflation evolution ahead in a context of already elevated inflation expectations. There was also a mention to inflation and activity printing somewhat above the baseline levels presented in the 4Q21 Monetary Policy Report (MPR).
- In all, the statement suggests an anxious Board, uneasy with the fact their baseline case for inflation got compromised just days after its publication.
- The minutes will help to best grasp whether the Board is validating what’s already in the price, or, more likely given the overall wording of the statement, whether the corridor ceiling is to be revised higher for the March Monetary Policy Report.
- JPM expect the policy rate at 6.75% in March. Their baseline scenario ahead is for consumption to decline ahead from unsustainable high levels and inflation to ease in 2H22. But JPM also recognize the Board’s revealed reaction function, with higher weight allocated to reanchoring inflation expectations than in prior cycles.
- JPM thus revise their baseline scenario for the monetary policy rate to reach 6.75% by March (+125bp). They also bring forward the start of an easing cycle to December 2022, and pencil in the policy rate converging to 4.5% by end 2023.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.