DALY SEES 'NO URGENCY TO ADJUST THE POLICY RATE'

MNI BRIEF: Fed’s Collins Sees Rate Cuts Later Than Had Thought

MNI BRIEF: China March M2 Slows More Than Expected

MNI BRIEF: China Tightens Stock Market Supervision

MNI BRIEF: China Mar Exports Jump On Demand; Imports Improve

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Lower At 7.0967 Fri; -4.87% Y/Y

MNI: BAKER HUGHES US RIG COUNT 617; OIL RIGS 506; GAS RIGS 109

March Home Sales Jumped At End Of Month

MNI BRIEF: Poilievre Calls QE 'Scam' And Would Limit BOC Remit

MNI: Growth Drag From Net Zero Carbon Goal Can Be Offset-OECD

MNI BRIEF: Lawmakers Signal Tough Hearing For BOC's Macklem

© 1982-2023 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

JPMorgan on BCCh: Policy Rate Should Converge to 1.5% by December.

CHILE
  • The statement reads in line with their base case, with emphasis on the economic recovery pace, labor market and inflation. The forward guidance is for the continuation of a gradual removal of the monetary impulse ahead. Also, in line with the 2Q21 policy report, the Board anticipates that the monetary policy rate is to remain below its neutral value throughout the two-year policy horizon.
  • JPM maintain their base case for a stable tightening pace through the remainder of the year. If so, the policy rate should converge to 1.5% by December. For December 2022 they expect the policy rate at 3%, slightly below the neutral range (revised to 3.25-3.75%).
  • But, leaving the Fed reaction function aside, the policy rate forecast for 2022 is highly dependent on the structural fiscal adjustment to be processed next year, which at a time depends on the election cycle outcome and the new Constitution.
  • Less fiscal consolidation effort than what the CBC entertains in its base case may force the hand of the Board into above-neutral and positive real rates.
EM BulletHomepageChina Market NewsBulletJPMorgan Market News Emerging Market News

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.