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JPMorgan On Brazil Election/Fiscal Framework

BRAZIL
  • As candidacies become official and candidates submit their economic and social programs to the Electoral Court, as required by law, they continue to focus on themes such as social benefits, taxes, and medium-term public investments.
  • Much of what is being promised on the campaign trail is inconsistent with the current fiscal framework.
  • While JPMorgan believe that structural decisions will most likely materialize only in 2023, they acknowledge that changes to the framework may happen as early as the Q4, even if just to guarantee the current pace of expenditures is sustained.
  • Thus far, some recent polls show a narrowing of the gap between Lula and Bolsonaro as fiscal stimulus starts to kick in. They believed today’s IPEC poll was an important event to watch.
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