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JPMorgan Say Peso Looks Prone To Correction, Enter Outright USDCLP Long

CHILE
  • JPMorgan have entered outright long USD/CLP. The entry level for the trade was 803.55 with a target of 845. They will review the trade at 780.
  • JPMorgan explained that disappointing Chinese data in the near-term point to weak prospects for copper, which could reach $3.3/lb according to their metal analysts.
  • CLP has decoupled from recent copper price action, and, having been one of the main beneficiaries of the Chinese reopening optimism, it looks prone to a correction from current levels.
  • Carry has been an anchor for LatAm currencies over the past few months, but interest rate differentials are likely to deteriorate in Chile faster and in a larger magnitude than elsewhere in EM.
  • While the unwinding of NDFs is unlikely to be a major driver for the currency on its own, BCCh would not have the same firepower as last year to intervene in case of increased volatility.
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