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JPY Circles Lower as Reports See BoJ NIRP to Hold Next Week

FOREX
  • JPY has circled lower, helping tip USD/JPY back above Y146.00 and further erase last week's pullback on Bloomberg headlines citing sources in saying the BoJ see little need to reverse negative interest rate policy at next week's policy meeting. EUR/JPY's recovery toward 158.73 has confirmed the 154.08 200-dma as solid support, a level which should hold focus as the week progresses.
  • The USD Index holds close to last week's highs, making 104.263 a level of focus ahead. The EUR trades well, helping EUR/GBP maintain the recent range, however a sharper recovery off last week's 0.8553 remains to be seen.
  • Norwegian CPI data this morning came in to the low side of expectations, further reinforcing calls for the Norges Bank to keep policy rates unchanged this week, despite a soft signal for further tightening at the last rate decision. NOK trades modestly softer, but EUR/NOK has seen little support as oil markets remain off the recent bottom.
  • Risk is backloaded this week, with the Fed, ECB and BoE rate decisions set to follow from Wednesday. The NY Fed's 1yr inflation expectation gauge is released during US market hours.
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