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JPY: Ueda Effect Keeps JPY Activity Well Ahead of G10 Peers

JPY
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Currency futures volumes sit well below average for this time of day, with EUR markets seeing activity of 40% below average, GBP ~30% below and AUD 32% below what you'd expect to see.

  • JPY is the standout here, with USD/JPY volatility across Asia-Pac hours helping prop up activity well ahead of the UK close - and as a consequence JPY futures volumes are ~25% higher.
  • EUR/JPY is among the best performing crosses in G10 Monday, with the strong bounce off the Friday low and the 50-dma of 162.27 helping underpin the intraday rally. Friday's highs of 165.04 mark the next upside level (along with the 164.92 200-dma), but resistance is seen stronger into 165.65 and the 166.69 bull trigger.
  • JPY holds the post-Ueda weakness after the BoJ governor overnight declined to commit to any specific path for the next rate hike - with a firm caveat that tightening will come "if the economy realises the BOJ's outlook for economic activity and prices" - signalling no specific progress in their tightening path.
  • National CPI data set for later this week will provide the next hurdle here - October CPI is seen slowing to 2.3% Y/Y, however ex-food & energy is seen picking up by 0.1ppts to 2.2%.
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Currency futures volumes sit well below average for this time of day, with EUR markets seeing activity of 40% below average, GBP ~30% below and AUD 32% below what you'd expect to see.

  • JPY is the standout here, with USD/JPY volatility across Asia-Pac hours helping prop up activity well ahead of the UK close - and as a consequence JPY futures volumes are ~25% higher.
  • EUR/JPY is among the best performing crosses in G10 Monday, with the strong bounce off the Friday low and the 50-dma of 162.27 helping underpin the intraday rally. Friday's highs of 165.04 mark the next upside level (along with the 164.92 200-dma), but resistance is seen stronger into 165.65 and the 166.69 bull trigger.
  • JPY holds the post-Ueda weakness after the BoJ governor overnight declined to commit to any specific path for the next rate hike - with a firm caveat that tightening will come "if the economy realises the BOJ's outlook for economic activity and prices" - signalling no specific progress in their tightening path.
  • National CPI data set for later this week will provide the next hurdle here - October CPI is seen slowing to 2.3% Y/Y, however ex-food & energy is seen picking up by 0.1ppts to 2.2%.