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Price Signal Summary - Evening Star Reversal In Gilts?

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  • Bi-Weekly CPI figures due at the top of the hour. Annual headline inflation is estimated to have fallen to 5.65% in the first two weeks of July from a prior figure of 5.74%.
  • The result would remain above the upper tolerance band of the central bank's target of 3.0% +/- 1 percentage point.
  • Food and fuel prices continue rising, but the uptrend has decelerated. Base effects are likely to explain the decline in yearly prints.
  • Given Director Heath's recent comments about the board being more comfortable with headline CPI closer to 5%, the reading will be eagerly watched for clues as to whether Banxico may hike interest rates again at their August meeting and the potential path for policy in 2021.
  • Data through the first two weeks of July compares with central bank expectations for an average headline and core of 4.5% and 3.9%, respectively, in Q3.
    • 1200BST/0700ET – Mexico July-15 Bi-Weekly CPI (Est. 0.26% m/m vs. 0.20% Prior)
    • 1200BST/0700ET – Mexico July-15 Bi-Weekly CPI (Est. 5.65% y/y vs. 5.74% Prior)
    • 1200BST/0700ET – Mexico July-15 Bi-Weekly Core CPI (Est. 0.23% m/m vs. 0.21%)