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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
CANADA
- With some of the dust settling on a somewhat inline Canadian CPI report, but one that ruled out a more hawkish surprise to derail a back-to-back cut, BoC-dated OIS has lifted to 22-23bp of cuts for Wednesday’s decision vs closer to 20bps prior.
- However, with the latest run rate firming slightly more than some expected in June, September cut odds have actually been trimmed a little to a cumulative 25bps: the Bank is seen cutting again in July before moving back to the sidelines to observe.
- Stronger US retail sales hitting also helps see very little net reaction in the 3M CORRA strip, with 63bp of cuts in 2024 contracts and 148bp of cumulative cuts by end-2025 (from 150bp prior).
- It’s more a relative play, for instance with Can-US 2Y yield differential falling 4bps since the collection of 0830ET data to -69.5bps as they fall further back to recent ranges after Friday’s close at -62.7bps was the highest since mid-May.
- USDCAD has touched 1.3707, clearing the overnight high but still off resistance seen at 1.3755 (Jul 2 high) before 1.3792 (Jun 11 high).
- There’s a solid $910m at 1.3600 expiring today but also heavy cumulative expiry of $2.0bn through 1.3800-1.3810.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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