July IP Weaker Than Expected, Retail Sales Uptrend Continues Though

July activity figures were mixed. Preliminary industrial production figures were weaker than expected, printing at -2.0% m/m (-1.4% forecast, 2.4% prior), taking the y/y pace to -2.5% (-1.4% forecast, flat prior). This continues the saw-tooth pattern for y/y IP, which now sits back close to earlier 2023 lows. Shipments fell -2.0% y/y, while weakness in industry segments was concentrated in the capital goods and construction sectors. The consumer related sectors held up better.

• The latter fits with the better than expected retail sales print for July, rising +2.1% m/m (0.8% forecast, prior -0.6%). This took the y/y pace to +6.8% (5.5% forecast, prior 5.6%).
• This continues the upward trend in y/y retail sales momentum, although we aren't above earlier 2023 highs yet.
• Strength was fairly broad based in retail, with department stores & super markets up 5.5%y/y (from 4.1%), while motor vehicles were the main drag at -6.4%m/m.