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July Labour Report Ahead - 0830ET

CANADA
  • Landing in its usual spot alongside US payrolls, Canadian employment is seen increasing a solid 25k in July after bouncing 60k in June of which a particularly strong 110k jobs were full-time. There’s a wide analyst range around this month’s release with 8-48k.
  • Continued immigration-led strength in labor supply is seen pushing the u/e rate a tenth higher to 5.5% from 5.38%, although there is decent skew to no change.
  • We went into more detail on the recent participation rate trends yesterday (here).
  • Wages are also to be watched closely, with the permanent employee measure seen ticking up two tenths to 4.1% Y/Y after last month’s sharper than expected drop from 5.1% Y/Y (a move confirmed in other wage metrics from the report).
  • Recall that wage growth is one of the four items on the BoC’s particular watchlist, a list that was promoted to the summary paragraph of the last two meetings statements as it hiked 25bps at each one.
  • BoC-dated CORRA OIS prices a ~10bp hike for September building to a cumulative 22.5bp by year-end.
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