June Flash Estimate Tracking Roughly In Line With Consensus

By the time Germany reports the national number at 1300UK/1400CET, we'll have received about ~60% of eurozone inflation basket by national weighting, with another ~30% (incl France, Netherlands) coming between then and the eurozone print on Friday morning.

• Somewhat overlooked, Belgium (4% of the Eurozone weighting) reported +4.15% Y/Y and -0.15% M/M CPI this morning (no consensus).
• Goldman Sachs is tracking German HICP at 6.7% Y/Y (0.1pp below the consensus coming into today) based on state data. That would be at odds with CPI tracking slightly above consensus by our estimates (6.4% vs 6.3% survey) but could be accounted for by weighting and methodological differences in the two baskets.
• Goldman's upgraded their eurozone headline forecast very slightly on the Spain/German data this morning, to 5.61% Y/Y from 5.59%. Either would be in line with consensus; prior to the Italian release yesterday they were forecasting 5.60% Y/Y so not much change overall.
• That said, they have lowered their core EZ estimate to 5.56% vs 5.58% prior (a little above the 5.5% core consensus - they had seen 5.61% prior to Italy's print yesterday).