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June Macroeconomic Projections Released

ECB
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ECB full updated macroeconomic projections can be found here.

  • A reminder that the June projections were put together by the Eurosystem (i.e. National Central Bank) staff, not the ECB staff themselves.
A reminder that the June projections were put together by the Eurosystem (i.e. National Central Bank) staff, not the ECB staff themselves. Some notes from the release:
  • "HICP inflation excluding energy and food (HICPX) should remain above headline inflation for most of the projection horizon but is expected to continue its disinflationary path, although at a slow pace and mainly in 2025 and 2026".
  • "A central element in this projection is the expected gradual easing of nominal wage growth from initially still elevated levels as upward impacts from inflation compensation pressures in a tight labour market fade".
  • "The expected recovery in productivity growth should support the moderation in labour cost pressures. Moreover, profit growth is set to weaken and partially buffer the pass-through of labour costs to prices, especially in 2024".
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ECB full updated macroeconomic projections can be found here.

  • A reminder that the June projections were put together by the Eurosystem (i.e. National Central Bank) staff, not the ECB staff themselves.
A reminder that the June projections were put together by the Eurosystem (i.e. National Central Bank) staff, not the ECB staff themselves. Some notes from the release:
  • "HICP inflation excluding energy and food (HICPX) should remain above headline inflation for most of the projection horizon but is expected to continue its disinflationary path, although at a slow pace and mainly in 2025 and 2026".
  • "A central element in this projection is the expected gradual easing of nominal wage growth from initially still elevated levels as upward impacts from inflation compensation pressures in a tight labour market fade".
  • "The expected recovery in productivity growth should support the moderation in labour cost pressures. Moreover, profit growth is set to weaken and partially buffer the pass-through of labour costs to prices, especially in 2024".