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Just Eyeing 50-day EMA Resistance Test, AUD Dominating Options Activity

AUD

AUD/USD sits close to session highs, near 0.6525/30, which is around the 50-day EMA (0.6528). We remain above the 20-day (0.6493), which we broke convincingly through post the data outcomes.

  • Beyond the 50-day EMA lies Apr 11 high at 0.6553, while earlier Apr highs were above 0.6600, which would also take us above all EMAs.
  • Not surprisingly, AUD/USD option volumes are the largest so far today (per DTCC, BBG), with just over $500mn in volumes (36% of total activity).
  • Post the data we saw a 0.6835 (USD call) deal, along with a 0.6270 (AUD put) among the larger volume deals post the data outcome. We have also seen a mixed of activity at the 0.6530 strike level.
  • Outside the CPI beat, which has induced a sharp bond market reaction and seen a 6-7bps rise in OIS pricing for 2025 RBA meetings, the positive equity backdrop is also an AUD support.
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