Feb 11, 2025 - 2:54 PM
STIR: Just Over 60bp Of BoE Cuts Priced Through Year-End
STIR
Modest hawkish repricing in GBP STIRs has come alongside weakness in the long end.
- Hawkish caveats from BoE’s Mann (detailed earlier) also helped the direction of travel this morning.
- BoE-dated OIS now showing ~61bp of cuts through year-end vs. ~64bp early today.
- Markets price 5bp of cuts through March (we have previously suggested that the vote split could be much tighter than many expect, if the Bank does remain on hold at the event), with the next cut fully discounted through May (matching our own expectation).
BoE Meeting |
SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%)
Difference vs. Cut-Adjusted SONIA Rate (bp)
Mar-25
4.406
-4.8
May-25
4.204
-25.0
Jun-25
4.122
-33.2
Aug-25
3.973
-48.1
Sep-25
3.937
-51.7
Nov-25
3.863
-59.1
Dec-25
3.845
-60.9
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