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STIR: Just Under 60bp Of BoE Cuts Priced Through '25, Offshore Matters Eyed

STIR
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Offshore developments have driven limited intraday swings in GBP STIRs.

  • BoE-dated OIS shows 58bp of cuts through ’25, little changed on the day.
  • Just over 80% market-implied odds of the next 25bp cut coming by the end of the March MPC.
  • SONIA futures are essentially unchanged on the day.
  • The market-implied cutting cycle continues to look shallow to us, although dovish UK data developments are probably needed to trigger a meaningful repricing.
  • We still look for BoE cuts in February & May.

BoE Meeting

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Offshore developments have driven limited intraday swings in GBP STIRs.

  • BoE-dated OIS shows 58bp of cuts through ’25, little changed on the day.
  • Just over 80% market-implied odds of the next 25bp cut coming by the end of the March MPC.
  • SONIA futures are essentially unchanged on the day.
  • The market-implied cutting cycle continues to look shallow to us, although dovish UK data developments are probably needed to trigger a meaningful repricing.
  • We still look for BoE cuts in February & May.

BoE Meeting

Keep reading...Show less