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STIR: Just Under 65bp Of BoE Cuts Priced Through '25

STIR
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Little net movement in GBP STIR pricing this morning.

  • 63.5bp of cuts priced through year-end after briefly touching 36bp last week.
  • Next 25bp cut fully discounted come the end of the March MPC, ~90% priced through the February decision.
  • SONIA futures flat to -1.5.
  • Much of the weekend domestic headline flow centred on political posturing ahead of U.S. President Trump’s inauguration.
  • That event dominates the macro calendar today.
  • UK labour market data is due tomorrow.
  • The dovish and centrist members of the BoE MPC are focusing more on growth data and deemphasising labour market data.
  • We (and the market) still pay attention to the wage data in particular and are concerned it may increase more than the Bank estimates in H125, although we do see increased risks of downside growth shocks putting some downside pressure on wages.
  • Expect our full preview of that release later today.
  • Flash PMI data is due Friday.
  • The market could be very sensitive to the PMIs, given the focus on any signs that the UK economy may be slowing further.

BoE Meeting

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Little net movement in GBP STIR pricing this morning.

  • 63.5bp of cuts priced through year-end after briefly touching 36bp last week.
  • Next 25bp cut fully discounted come the end of the March MPC, ~90% priced through the February decision.
  • SONIA futures flat to -1.5.
  • Much of the weekend domestic headline flow centred on political posturing ahead of U.S. President Trump’s inauguration.
  • That event dominates the macro calendar today.
  • UK labour market data is due tomorrow.
  • The dovish and centrist members of the BoE MPC are focusing more on growth data and deemphasising labour market data.
  • We (and the market) still pay attention to the wage data in particular and are concerned it may increase more than the Bank estimates in H125, although we do see increased risks of downside growth shocks putting some downside pressure on wages.
  • Expect our full preview of that release later today.
  • Flash PMI data is due Friday.
  • The market could be very sensitive to the PMIs, given the focus on any signs that the UK economy may be slowing further.

BoE Meeting

Keep reading...Show less