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OIL: Kazakhstan So Far Shows No Signs Of Cutting Production To Meet OPEC+ Quota

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Kazakhstan shows no signs so far of cutting production to meet OPEC+ quota despite latest promises, according to an FGE analyst note cited by Bloomberg.

  • FGE says that if the country does meet the quota, in the “best case scenario” it will likely only adhere to it for three months.
  • “The most plausible scenario” is Astana will get partners at Tengiz oil field to shut in capacity at the Future Growth Project in March, April and May.
  • FGE says it is “highly unlikely” that Kazakhstan will make extra curbs promised as compensation for overproduction.
  • Oil field maintenance could be used as a way of making compensation cuts, but FGE does not see field maintenance alone as being enough to bring Kazakh production back in line with OPEC+ targets on an annual basis.
  • Sources told Reuters on Tuesday that Kazakhstan had yet to deliver its announced oil output cuts, with crude and condensate production at 2.18m b/d as of March 10. 
  • Exports via CPC were in line with the initial loading plan of 6.7m mt for March as of March 11, according to the sources. 
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Kazakhstan shows no signs so far of cutting production to meet OPEC+ quota despite latest promises, according to an FGE analyst note cited by Bloomberg.

  • FGE says that if the country does meet the quota, in the “best case scenario” it will likely only adhere to it for three months.
  • “The most plausible scenario” is Astana will get partners at Tengiz oil field to shut in capacity at the Future Growth Project in March, April and May.
  • FGE says it is “highly unlikely” that Kazakhstan will make extra curbs promised as compensation for overproduction.
  • Oil field maintenance could be used as a way of making compensation cuts, but FGE does not see field maintenance alone as being enough to bring Kazakh production back in line with OPEC+ targets on an annual basis.
  • Sources told Reuters on Tuesday that Kazakhstan had yet to deliver its announced oil output cuts, with crude and condensate production at 2.18m b/d as of March 10. 
  • Exports via CPC were in line with the initial loading plan of 6.7m mt for March as of March 11, according to the sources.