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Key data and MPC speakers this week (2/3)

UK
DataHomepagemarkets-real-timeData BulletBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets
  • As we noted in the BOE Review, the bar to surprise the Bank’s wage forecast to the upside tomorrow is higher than previously with all of the sellside previews that we have read looking for private sector regular pay to come in at least 0.1ppt below the BOE’s Q1 forecast. There is likely an asymmetric reaction to the data – with any private regular wages growth of 6.1%Y/Y in the 3-months to March likely to reduce the probability of a June cut but any print below 5.8%Y/Y in the 3-months to March seeing a smaller increase in probability of a June cut. We will release our Labour Market Preview this afternoon.
  • Elsewhere this week, we are due to hear from Bernanke on Wednesday as he testifies ahead of the Treasury Select Committee with regard to his forecasting review. This will be worth watching but we don’t think the comments will be immediately market moving as any recommendations from the report are likely to take some time to implement (and indeed Bailey said in the MPR press conference last week that the changes wouldn’t be implemented piecemeal).
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  • As we noted in the BOE Review, the bar to surprise the Bank’s wage forecast to the upside tomorrow is higher than previously with all of the sellside previews that we have read looking for private sector regular pay to come in at least 0.1ppt below the BOE’s Q1 forecast. There is likely an asymmetric reaction to the data – with any private regular wages growth of 6.1%Y/Y in the 3-months to March likely to reduce the probability of a June cut but any print below 5.8%Y/Y in the 3-months to March seeing a smaller increase in probability of a June cut. We will release our Labour Market Preview this afternoon.
  • Elsewhere this week, we are due to hear from Bernanke on Wednesday as he testifies ahead of the Treasury Select Committee with regard to his forecasting review. This will be worth watching but we don’t think the comments will be immediately market moving as any recommendations from the report are likely to take some time to implement (and indeed Bailey said in the MPR press conference last week that the changes wouldn’t be implemented piecemeal).