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Free AccessKey Support Eyed Ahead Of Fedspeak; Ukraine Escalation Risk Put Away For Now
Gold trades ~$6/oz higher, printing $1,860/oz at writing. The precious metal has risen a little above Monday’s worst levels at writing catching a bid as nominal U.S. Tsy yields continue to trade around the bottom of their respective ranges on Monday.
- To recap Monday’s price action, gold closed ~$30/oz lower, hitting one-week lows as U.S. real yields broadly moved higher by the session’s end, while the USD (DXY) was little changed on the day after backing away from fresh 20-year highs.
- Looking to Russia, Putin’s Victory Day speech made on Monday overall showed no indication of meaningful escalation in the Russia-Ukraine war, easing prior worry from some quarters re: a wider conflict. Defence analysts have however highlighted significant unresolved issues such as an “off-ramp” for Russia to de-escalate, as well as the lingering possibility of escalation in the coming weeks given the plausibly inconvenient timing (May is a traditional Russian holiday period).
- A note that a packed Fedspeak slate is due later today from the likes of Williams (voter), Barkin (‘24), Waller (voter), Kashkari (‘23), and Mester (‘24).
- From a technical perspective, gold remains vulnerable after moving below support at the 50-Day EMA, and trades a short distance away from support at $1,848.8/oz (76.4% retracement of the Jan28-Mar8 rally). On the other hand, resistance sits at $1,909.8/oz (May 5 high).
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.