Killing Of US Personnel Raises Prospect Of Direct Response Against Iran

The killing of three US service personnel, and the injuring of at least 34 others, in a strike on a remote military outpost in Jordan on 28 Jan could see a notable escalation in US military actions in the Middle East in response to the attack. Iranian-backed militia the Islamic Resistance in Iraq has claimed responsilbility.

• For the geopolitical outlook of the region, which in turn could impact on areas including financial and commodity markets, there is the notable risk of a significant US response to the attacks. This adds to the myriad security risks already evident in the Middle East.
• Houthis: The British-owned Marlin Luanda tanks was set ablaze by a Houthi strike over the weekend. The airstrikes by the US and its allies appear to have had little impact on the Houthi's ability to carry out attacks, and indeed may have strengthened their resolve.
• Iraq: There have also been a number of missiles strikes conducted on Iraq by Iran, ostensibly hitting cites that Tehran claims are linked to the Israeli spy agency Mossad. Some of these have come close to sites hosting US forces.
• Israel-Hamas: The ongoing Israeli assault on Hamas in Gaza remains a major source of regional tension that limited the prospect of de-escalation.
• The direct killing of US personnel, though, is an action that Washington will not allow to stand without forceful retaliation that could see a more direct response to Tehran. While Iran has sought to distance itself from the attack, the country's role in backing the militias could see the US view them as a legitimate target.