Kiwi Firms After RBNZ Holds Rates & Sees No Rate Cuts In 2024

The Kiwi is the strongest performer in the G-10 space at the margins on Wednesday. NZD firmed off after the RBNZ held the OCR steady at 5.5%, the latest projections from the RBNZ showed an uptick in OCR expectations. The central bank doesn't see any cuts out to end 2024, with an expected OCR of 5.50%, the prior forecast (in May) was 5.3%.

• NZD/USD prints at $0.5960/65, the pair is ~0.2% firmer today. We sit well within recent ranges, bulls target the $0.60 handle and the 20-Day EMA ($0.6080). AUD/NZD is down ~0.1% breaking below the 200-Day EMA, however the $1.08 handle remains intact for now.
• AUD/USD sits on support at $0.6454, the low from Aug 14 and bear trigger as of yet the pair has not been able to break through support this week. A break through current levels opens $0.6403, 76.4% retracement of the Oct 22 to Feb 23 bull leg. Resistance is at $0.6534, high from Nov 11.
• Yen is little changed today. An uptrend remains intact after yesterday's fresh cycle high. Resistance comes in at ¥145.87, yesterdays high, and ¥146.38, 1.764 projection of Jul 14-21-28 price swing.
• Elsewhere in G-10 ranges are narrow with little follow through on moves.
• Cross asset wise; E-minis are up ~0.1% and BBDXY is flat. US Tsy Yields are a touch lower across the curve.
• July Inflation report from the UK headlines in Europe today, headline CPI is expected to tick lower to 6.7% Y/Y from 7.9%.