Kiwi On Softer Footing Ahead Of Retail Sales

NZD/USD last trades at $0.7166, 8 pips shy of neutral levels, after recording a third straight weekly loss last Friday. The kiwi underperforms its G10 peers at the margin, as high-beta FX have started the week on a weaker note, with e-minis slipping at the re-open. Little in the way of notable broader news flow has transpired over the weekend, save for continued elevated volatility in cryptocurrencies.

• This week's round of NZ data kicks off shortly with the release of quarterly retail sales. Analysts expect a 1.8% Q/Q decline, according to BBG consensus forecast.
• Later in the week, focus turns to trade balance & the RBNZ's latest MPS (both due Wednesday) as well as ANZ Consumer Confidence (Friday).
• MNI Policy Team says that the RBNZ are likely to leave all the major monetary policy settings unchanged this week, although they could signal a slowing of government bond purchases in coming months.
• A fall through the 50-DMA/May 13 low at $0.7140/35 would shift focus to $0.7116, which represents May 4 low & a key near-term support. Conversely, a jump above May 18 high of $0.7271 would draw attention to May 10/Mar 2 highs of $0.7305/07.