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Kiwi Treads Water Near Cycle Highs, Awaits Wednesday's MPS

NZD

NZD/USD finished last week on a firmer note, surging to the Jan 6 cycle high of $0.7315, but this key resistance level held firm for now. The pair last trades at $0.7298, just shy of multi-year highs and barely changed on the day.

  • The aforementioned $0.7315 figure provides a key bullish target and a break here would signal scope for further gains. The significance of that level is reinforced by the nearby presence of a channel top, intersecting at $0.7319. Next resistance is located at $0.7395, the high print of Apr 13, 2018. Conversely, a sell-off through the 50-DMA/channel floor at $0.7183/66 would suggest that a bearish reversal is underway.
  • Interest.co.nz cited a document obtained under the Official Information Act suggesting that NZ Tsy advised that the RBNZ attaches conditions to its FLP scheme to better support businesses.
  • The local docket this week is headlined by the first MonPol decision from the RBNZ this year. Wednesday's release of the OCR decision & Monetary Policy Statement will be followed by comments from RBNZ Gov Orr on both Wednesday & Thursday.
  • NZIER have published the usual recommendations from their Shadow Board, who "were generally in favour of leaving the monetary policy stance unchanged given the improving outlook balanced against the high degree of uncertainty."
  • On the data front, focus in NZ turns to quarterly retail sales (Tuesday), final ANZ Business Confidence (Thursday) as well as trade balance & ANZ Consumer Confidence (Friday).

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