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CZK: Koruna Continues Ticking Lower, Flash GDP Estimates Match Expectations

CZK
EM BulletCzech RepublicBulletEmerging Market NewsCentral and Eastern EuropeCzechia

EUR/CZK has traded with a modest bullish bias over the past three days, etching out some gains on a weekly basis as a result, ahead of the upcoming CNB monetary policy meeting. The pair last deals +0.005 at 25.141 and a clean break above the 50-DMA (25.154) and 100-DMA (25.209) would bring Jan 17 high of 25.317 into play. On the downside, the focus is still on the 25.0 figure.

  • Preliminary data from the CZSO showed that the Czech economy grew by 1.6% Y/Y and by 0.5% Q/Q in 4Q24, which was in line with market expectations. Annual growth was slightly weaker than the CNB's +1.7% estimate, but the central bank's projection is slightly outdated at this point. The next one will be published alongside the upcoming monetary policy meeting.
  • Czechia's M2 money supply rose by 7.4% Y/Y in December in a relatively sharp increase from November's +5.3% to the fastest pace since February. In a recent interview for Central Banking, Governor Michl said that he was monitoring monetary aggregates, with a focus on the three-month average of M2.
  • Finance Minister Stanjura expressed scepticism about CNB Governor Michl's idea to explore the option of investing part of the central bank's foreign reserves in crypto assets. The Bank Board yesterday approved the proposal to study the use of alternative asset classes in international reserves management.
  • During today's earnings call, Moneta Bank CEO Tomas Spurny told reporters that the current level of interest rates is "optimal" and that the CNB should not lower them in the next two months. He added that Czechia should seek to boost growth through structural reforms rather than looser monetary conditions.
  • The CNB has entered its media blackout period ahead of next week's monetary policy decision.
  • CZGB yields sit marginally lower; the PX Index has climbed to fresh cyclical highs.
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EUR/CZK has traded with a modest bullish bias over the past three days, etching out some gains on a weekly basis as a result, ahead of the upcoming CNB monetary policy meeting. The pair last deals +0.005 at 25.141 and a clean break above the 50-DMA (25.154) and 100-DMA (25.209) would bring Jan 17 high of 25.317 into play. On the downside, the focus is still on the 25.0 figure.

  • Preliminary data from the CZSO showed that the Czech economy grew by 1.6% Y/Y and by 0.5% Q/Q in 4Q24, which was in line with market expectations. Annual growth was slightly weaker than the CNB's +1.7% estimate, but the central bank's projection is slightly outdated at this point. The next one will be published alongside the upcoming monetary policy meeting.
  • Czechia's M2 money supply rose by 7.4% Y/Y in December in a relatively sharp increase from November's +5.3% to the fastest pace since February. In a recent interview for Central Banking, Governor Michl said that he was monitoring monetary aggregates, with a focus on the three-month average of M2.
  • Finance Minister Stanjura expressed scepticism about CNB Governor Michl's idea to explore the option of investing part of the central bank's foreign reserves in crypto assets. The Bank Board yesterday approved the proposal to study the use of alternative asset classes in international reserves management.
  • During today's earnings call, Moneta Bank CEO Tomas Spurny told reporters that the current level of interest rates is "optimal" and that the CNB should not lower them in the next two months. He added that Czechia should seek to boost growth through structural reforms rather than looser monetary conditions.
  • The CNB has entered its media blackout period ahead of next week's monetary policy decision.
  • CZGB yields sit marginally lower; the PX Index has climbed to fresh cyclical highs.