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POLAND: Kotecki, Dabrowski Highlight Potential For Rate Cuts This Year

POLAND
PolandCEEMEAEM BulletBulletEmerging Market News
  • A couple of Monetary Policy Council (MPC) members suggested that the central bank could reduce interest rates by the end of this year, pouring cold water on hawkish forward guidance offered by Governor Adam Glapinski.
    • Ireneusz Dabrowski highlighted last year's robust wage growth as a problem from the inflation-fighting perspective and said that Poland may need to wait two or three quarters before cutting rates. Dabrowski told Polsat News that lower energy costs and cooling wage pressures may help bring inflation down this year.
    • Ludwik Kotecki told Puls Biznesu that a discussion on rate cuts may still happen in March. He said that macro data indicated that there is no demand-side pressure in the economy and suggested that there is room for 100bp worth of easing this year, which could be delivered in 25bp increments.
  • OGB released the first opinion poll to date which showed that Law and Justice's (PiS's) candidate Karol Nawrocki could narrowly win a run-off against Civic Coalition's (KO's) Rafal Trzaskowski.
  • Statistics Poland will release December unemployment data at 09:00GMT/10:00CET. Consensus expects an uptick to 5.1%, in line with the earlier update from the Ministry of Family, Labour and Social Policy.
  • President Andrzej Duda's aide said that US President Donald Trump will receive an invitation for the Three Seas Initiative summit, which will be hosted by Poland on April 28-29.
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  • A couple of Monetary Policy Council (MPC) members suggested that the central bank could reduce interest rates by the end of this year, pouring cold water on hawkish forward guidance offered by Governor Adam Glapinski.
    • Ireneusz Dabrowski highlighted last year's robust wage growth as a problem from the inflation-fighting perspective and said that Poland may need to wait two or three quarters before cutting rates. Dabrowski told Polsat News that lower energy costs and cooling wage pressures may help bring inflation down this year.
    • Ludwik Kotecki told Puls Biznesu that a discussion on rate cuts may still happen in March. He said that macro data indicated that there is no demand-side pressure in the economy and suggested that there is room for 100bp worth of easing this year, which could be delivered in 25bp increments.
  • OGB released the first opinion poll to date which showed that Law and Justice's (PiS's) candidate Karol Nawrocki could narrowly win a run-off against Civic Coalition's (KO's) Rafal Trzaskowski.
  • Statistics Poland will release December unemployment data at 09:00GMT/10:00CET. Consensus expects an uptick to 5.1%, in line with the earlier update from the Ministry of Family, Labour and Social Policy.
  • President Andrzej Duda's aide said that US President Donald Trump will receive an invitation for the Three Seas Initiative summit, which will be hosted by Poland on April 28-29.