Kremlin, Foreign Ministry Take Different Lines On DPR/LPR Borders

In direct contrast to comments reported by IFX from the Russian Foreign Ministry stating that Russia recognises the borders of the so-called Luhansk and Donetsk People's Republics where they currently have control (see 1049GMT bullet), comments emerging from Kremlin spox Dimitry Peskov stating that Russia recognises the borders of the separatist regions 'as declared' by the leaders of these regions.

• This would see the LPR and DPR recognised as encompassing the entire Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, risking an outbreak of large-scale conflict with Ukrainian forces, which control the remaining areas of the two oblasts not under separatist control.
• The stance taken by the Russian gov't is crucial. Recognising borders along current lines of control could see conflict contained. Recognising borders along declared lines (and thereby sanctioning separatist attacks on Ukraininan troops in Donbas) would risk a major escalation to the point of open warfare between the two sides.
• There will be significant concerns in Kyiv of an assault on the city of Mariupol (pop. 431k) by Russian forces. Would be a clear indicator of an intention to create a 'land bridge' between separatist regions and Crimea along the Sea of Azov (see south of map below). This could be preceded by further Russian claims of a Ukrainian 'assault' on the city or a similar 'false flag' operation.

Source: OSCE

• Size, strategic importance, and mixed ethnic makeup of Mariupol (48% Ukrainian, 44% Russian) would likely result in a major conflict in the city and region should Russian troops/separatist forces attempt to seize the city.