KRW Continues To Strengthen, GDP Outlook & Potential Samsung Dividend Hike In Focus

Spot USD/KRW defied broader risk aversion in early trade this week and has slid firmly, touching worst levels since Mar 2019, amid optimism surrounding tomorrow's preliminary GDP data for Q3, due out of South Korea. BBG consensus forecast is for a 1.3% Q/Q rebound, as economists took note of a recovery in South Korea's exports, with BBG flagging that the country will likely come out of the coronavirus crisis in a better shape than G7 economies.

• Some analysts are expecting Samsung Group to increase dividends at some units to help children of the late Samsung chairman Lee Kun-hee, who passed away this weekend, pay the inheritance tax. The total amount of tax to be collected from Lee's children is estimated to be around KRW10.9tn, per BBG/Korea Investment & Securities.
• South Korea's coronavirus case count registered at 119 today, keeping officials on alert ahead of upcoming Halloween events.
• The rate sits -4.10 fig. at KRW1,128.75 at typing. A break below channel floor at KRW1,124.32 would encourage bears to set their sights on Feb 27, 2019 low of KRW1,115.40. Bulls look to take out Oct 22 high of KRW1,138.25 before taking aim at Oct 13 high of KRW1,151.45.
• Worth watching any comments from South Korean officials on the won's appreciation, after last week saw FinMin Hong pledging to take action in case of any one-sided movement in the FX market.
• After the release of GDP data, focus moves to the BoK's consumer & business sentiment gauges, due Wednesday & Thursday respectively, as well as industrial production data, due Friday. Elsewhere, BoK Dep Gov Chung will speak at a conference on Tuesday.