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KRW & INR Outperform, IDR & THB Lag

ASIA FX

USD/Asia pairs are mostly lower, with the won and the Indian rupee the best performers at this stage. USD/CNH is lower but found support sub the 6.9000 level. Equities have been firmer around the region, albeit to varying degrees, while a softer USD against the majors has also helped. The weekend focus will be firmly on China's NPC, while on Monday we get South Korea CPI data.

  • USD/CNH tried to break back below 6.9000 on a number of occasions but found USD support each time. Commentary from the PBoC, which pushed back against any imminent shift in monetary policy, appeared to weigh on local equities, which may have impacted CNH negatively. USD/CNH last stood at 6.9070.
  • 1 month USD/KRW has traded with a firmer downside bias. The pair was last around the 1300 level, -0.70% sub NY closing levels. This comes despite only a modestly positive onshore equity lead. The market may be mindful of a positive growth surprise from this weekend's NPC (i.e. something closer to 6%), with the won seen as a good proxy for China-related sentiment.
  • USD/SGD is slightly lower, last near 1.3475/80, but underperforming trends elsewhere in the region. The SGD NEER is down slightly, with weaker than expected retail figures (-0.8% y/y, +4.9% expected) and the PMI slipping back into contraction (49.6 from 51.2) likely weighing at the margins on NEER performance.
  • USD/INR is down -0.40% in the first part of trade, last near 82.25. Rupee is firming in early trade on reports that offshore investor GQG Partners bought shares in four Adani group firms. Note also the services PMI rose further to 59.4 from 57.2 last month. USD/INR bears look to target 2023 lows at 80.89. Bulls still look to target a break of 83.00.
  • Spot USD/IDR is through the 15300 level, last tracking around the 15310/15 region, slightly down from session highs. This puts us back to mid Jan levels. The pair is above all key EMAs, while the simple 100-day MA sits higher at 15432. IDR is the second worst performer within the region this past week, down 0.60%, with only MYR, off by nearly 1%, a worst performer. The rupiah is tracking lower for the fourth straight week. The continued push higher in core yields remains a headwind.
  • THB has underperformed, with USD/THB around +0.15% higher for the session, last in the 34.80/85 region. Onshore equities remain under pressure, while yesterday's weaker trade figures may also still be weighing.

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