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KRW Outperforms, CNH, PHP & INR Lag Softer USD Trend

ASIA FX

Most USD/Asia pairs are lower, in line with softer USD indices against the majors. CNH, INR and PHP have lagged broader moves to a degree, while KRW has outperformed. Still to come is India wholesale inflation, which comes after yesterday's firmer CPI outcome. Tomorrow, we have China's 1yr MLF outcome, but no change is expected. India trade figures are also out, along with South Korea trade prices and the unemployment rate.

  • USD/CNH couldn't find much traction sub 6.8200 in early trade. We last sat near this level, while the CNY fixing was modestly on the firmer side. Onshore equities have dipped further into the red as the session has progressed, but overall losses remain modest.
  • 1 month USD/KRW has seen more downside in comparison. The pair is back to the 1266/67 region, around -0.45% down for the session so far. We are now back close to the 50-day EMA, against highs yesterday around 1279 Lower USD/JPY levels helped this pair, as did the better tone to local equities.
  • USD/INR saw little follow through from early softness. The pair is back to the 82.70 level, little changed for the session. Onshore equities are higher, but bonds weaker following yesterday's CPI beat (5yr +4bps to 7.33%). Coming up later is wholesale prices for Jan, the Bloomberg survey median estimate is 4.50% and the prior print was 4.95%.
  • USD/IDR is tracking lower in the first part of trade, with the pair back to 15165, -0.20% lower for the session so far. The pair remains wedged between key EMAs for now. On the topside is the 50 and 100 days (between 15260 and 15283 respectively), while on the downside is the 20 and 200 day (15122 and 15130 respectively). We did dip briefly below 15160 in early trade but follow through has been limited. Economic Affairs Minister, Airlangga Hartarto, stated the government will ask exporters to keep 30% of their earnings onshore 3 months, per Bloomberg reports. The policy is expected to yield $40-50bn in reserves in a 12 month period.
  • PHP is underperforming the softer USD trend evident elsewhere in the region. Spot USD/PHP is basically unchanged for the session, last near 54.76. Recent dips sub 54.40 have been supported, while resistance was evident last week on the move above 55.00. Tensions with China are evident, with the authorities filing a protest with China over alleged behaviour in the South China Sea. This comes after the Philippines expanded US access to Philippines military bases, while over the weekend closer defense ties were agreed with Japan.

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