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KRW: Spot USD/KRW Sub 20-day EMA, BoK Seen On Hold Today

KRW
EM BulletBulletSouth KoreaAPACEmerging Market News

Spot USD/KRW finished extended Wednesday trade at 1391.5, a won gain of 0.37%. This was the third straight session of won gains. The 1month NDF ended Wednesday NY trade under 1390. This puts both pairs under their respective 20-day EMA support points. Still, the won lagged broader USD index losses, with the DXY down 0.87%, the BBDXY off 0.65%. 

  • For spot USD/KRW the 20-day EMA is nearby at 132.9, a sustained break lower may see the 50-day targeted, which rests near 1379. Highs this week rest at 1407.3.
  • The main focus today will be the BoK decision. No change is expected by us or the consensus, in light of the won weakness through much of Oct/first part of Nov.
  • The skew around the growth backdrop is negative though, so the central bank is still likely to leave the door ajar for further easing in the first part of 2025. The central bank will announce forecast revisions for 2024 and 2025 in terms of GDP and CPI.
  • In the equity space, we have negative leads from the SOX index (down 1.51%) and MSCI IT from Wednesday trade. To recap, the Kospi lost 0.69%, while offshore investors sold -$235.8mn of local shares. 
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Spot USD/KRW finished extended Wednesday trade at 1391.5, a won gain of 0.37%. This was the third straight session of won gains. The 1month NDF ended Wednesday NY trade under 1390. This puts both pairs under their respective 20-day EMA support points. Still, the won lagged broader USD index losses, with the DXY down 0.87%, the BBDXY off 0.65%. 

  • For spot USD/KRW the 20-day EMA is nearby at 132.9, a sustained break lower may see the 50-day targeted, which rests near 1379. Highs this week rest at 1407.3.
  • The main focus today will be the BoK decision. No change is expected by us or the consensus, in light of the won weakness through much of Oct/first part of Nov.
  • The skew around the growth backdrop is negative though, so the central bank is still likely to leave the door ajar for further easing in the first part of 2025. The central bank will announce forecast revisions for 2024 and 2025 in terms of GDP and CPI.
  • In the equity space, we have negative leads from the SOX index (down 1.51%) and MSCI IT from Wednesday trade. To recap, the Kospi lost 0.69%, while offshore investors sold -$235.8mn of local shares.