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Labour Dispute at Eskom Could Hamper Growth Into H2

SOUTH AFRICA
  • eNCA and IOL both write on the wildcat strike at Eskom, writing that forced load shedding due to labour disputes could wipe out any prospects for South African economic growth in Q2 this year. Stage 4 load shedding is due to persist into Wednesday, with disputes continuing. Unions are looking for a 15% wage increase as well as a R1,600 rise in housing allowances.
  • President Ramaphosa, in an open letter, writes that this week will be one of the most consequential for South Africa in years, with the removal of COVID restrictions overlapping with the beginning of government work on the findings of the state capture report last week. Ramaphosa acknowledging the opening of a trust gap with government, which he will now work to close.
  • Economists at the BER write that over the medium-term, electricity generation across South Africa could improve after Eskom identified 18 winning bids to offer power producers access to land with direct access to the grid. These projects should add 1,800MW in capacity, and could be effective from H2 2023 onwards. Despite this, the BER add energy constraint issues may only start to ease from late 2024 or 2025 – leaving load shedding issues persisting for the next three years.
  • The ANC across Gauteng has elected new leaders at Sunday elections, and are expected to give their support to Ramaphosa later this year as he looks to secure a second term as ANC leader.
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