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Labour Market Data Continues To Signal Ongoing Softening

GERMAN DATA
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The latest German labour market data has again been on the weaker side overall, with rising unemployment and underemployment as well as a fall in labour demand, offset somewhat by a marginal rise in employment. "The chances of ending unemployment by taking up employment are at a historically low level", the employment agency adds.

  • Unemployment rose again more than expected in July, by 18.0k, but less than in June (20.0k, revised from 19.0k) on a seasonally-adjusted basis. The (seasonally-adjusted) unemployment rate remained at 6.0%, as expected.
  • Employment rose by 8k in June (latest month for which data is available; vs 21k May) in a further extension of all-time high levels on a seasonally-adjusted basis. Employment gains since the beginning of 2024 continue to be solely driven by part-time employment, according to the employment agency.
  • The expected number of employees impacted by 'Kurzarbeit' (which has to be reported in advance by companies and can be interpreted as an early indicator for future use of state benefits) ticked up by around a third in July vs June according to the employment agency (58k July 1-25; note that the measure can be volatile). Underemployment excl. Kurzarbeit meanwhile was largely unchanged on a SA basis, printing 1k higher (vs +12k June).
  • Labour demand, reflected by the agency's seasonally-adjusted job index "BA-X", declined again in June, by 2 points to 107 (-12p vs July 2023; all-time high of 138p in May 2022; the index is normalised to 2015=100 and reflects vacancy levels and activity).
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The latest German labour market data has again been on the weaker side overall, with rising unemployment and underemployment as well as a fall in labour demand, offset somewhat by a marginal rise in employment. "The chances of ending unemployment by taking up employment are at a historically low level", the employment agency adds.

  • Unemployment rose again more than expected in July, by 18.0k, but less than in June (20.0k, revised from 19.0k) on a seasonally-adjusted basis. The (seasonally-adjusted) unemployment rate remained at 6.0%, as expected.
  • Employment rose by 8k in June (latest month for which data is available; vs 21k May) in a further extension of all-time high levels on a seasonally-adjusted basis. Employment gains since the beginning of 2024 continue to be solely driven by part-time employment, according to the employment agency.
  • The expected number of employees impacted by 'Kurzarbeit' (which has to be reported in advance by companies and can be interpreted as an early indicator for future use of state benefits) ticked up by around a third in July vs June according to the employment agency (58k July 1-25; note that the measure can be volatile). Underemployment excl. Kurzarbeit meanwhile was largely unchanged on a SA basis, printing 1k higher (vs +12k June).
  • Labour demand, reflected by the agency's seasonally-adjusted job index "BA-X", declined again in June, by 2 points to 107 (-12p vs July 2023; all-time high of 138p in May 2022; the index is normalised to 2015=100 and reflects vacancy levels and activity).