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Labour market data due at 7:00BST

UK DATA
  • UK labour market data is due for release at 7:00BST / 8:00CET and will continue to be closely watched.
  • Wage data in particular will be in focus, with the proportion of passthrough from higher inflation to higher wage growth still highly uncertain. Consensus looks for earnings ex. bonuses to edge up by 0.1pp to +4.3% 3m/YoY with the including bonuses number expected to soften by 0.1pp to a still strong strong +6.7% 3m/YoY.
  • A further 68k increase in payrolled employees in June is also expected, in a metric that has not seen a negative print since February 2021.
  • The May ILO unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 3.8%.
  • As with other recent UK data releases we could see some initial impact for the pound at the time of release, but we are likely to see a bigger reaction when SONIA futures markets open at 7:30BST.
  • The market is currently pricing in 48bp for the August meeting, which could be pared back a bit if we saw some softer earnings growth and a fall in payrolled employees. If we were to see an upside surprise, it is more likely we would see a selloff further down the strip but we don't think the market will get too carried away with hikes of larger than 50bp for the BOE - so there is not a lot of wiggle room with so much already priced in.
  • Some of the market moves might be a little more restrained given that we also have inflation data due for release tomorrow.
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