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Labour market data mixed; GBPUSD higher

UK DATA
  • More divergence in UK labour market data again - more decent upside surprises to the wage growth data but the unemployment rate has risen from 4.0% to 4.2%, the highest since October 2021 and from a trough of 3.5% in August 2022 (and 3.8% two months ago).
  • At first glance this would firm up expectations for a September hike and push up expectations for November (as it's looking increasingly unlikely the wage data will have turned substantially lower by then).
  • However, one thing to note is that part of these wage numbers are due to the NHS one-off payment in June so they're not as concerning as they initially look.
  • Decent upside surprise to GBPUSD here moving from 1.2685 pre-data to hit an intraday high of 1.2721. We are around 10 pips off that high now.

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