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NEW ZEALAND: Labour Market Excess Capacity Reducing Participation Rate

NEW ZEALAND
APACNew ZealandBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange Bullets

Building spare capacity in the NZ labour market is helping to bring wage inflation down. In Q4 full-time employment fell 0.3% q/q to be down 1.7% y/y after -0.9% y/y in Q3 and hours worked fell 0.5% q/q and 1.9% y/y after -1.1% y/y. The number of unemployed rose further and is now up 26.8% y/y. At the same time, the working age population rose 0.3% q/q but annual growth has moderated sharply to 1.3% y/y, 2pp below the peak. There are also signs of this capacity impacting the labour force with the participation rate trending lower over the last 18 months with it now 1.4pp below its Q2 2023 peak. This has been driven by young people who helped to cover the post-pandemic labour shortages. 

NZ hours worked vs full-time employment y/y%

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Building spare capacity in the NZ labour market is helping to bring wage inflation down. In Q4 full-time employment fell 0.3% q/q to be down 1.7% y/y after -0.9% y/y in Q3 and hours worked fell 0.5% q/q and 1.9% y/y after -1.1% y/y. The number of unemployed rose further and is now up 26.8% y/y. At the same time, the working age population rose 0.3% q/q but annual growth has moderated sharply to 1.3% y/y, 2pp below the peak. There are also signs of this capacity impacting the labour force with the participation rate trending lower over the last 18 months with it now 1.4pp below its Q2 2023 peak. This has been driven by young people who helped to cover the post-pandemic labour shortages. 

NZ hours worked vs full-time employment y/y%

Keep reading...Show less