Free Trial

Lack Of Clear Frontrunner To Take Over LDP Could Aid PM Kishida


Japanese PM Fumio Kishida remains under significant pressure within his governing conservative Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) amid multi-year low approval ratings. This has led to speculation that powerful factions within the LDP could seek to oust Kishida at or ahead of the Oct 2024 LDP leadership conference in order to bolster the party's chances in the next general election due by 2025.

  • However, the latest polling from ANN - carried out 25/26 Nov - shows there is no one potential leadership candidate that is overwhelmingly popular with the public (see chart below). Former Environment Minister Shinjirō Koizumi, son of former PM Junichirō Koizumi, leads the poll despite garnering just 19% support among the respondents (although this is up 4% on the September survey).
  • Hawkish former minister Shigeru Ishiba sits in second place with 17% support, while Digitalisation Minister Taro Kono is the highest-polling current Cabinet member with 13% support. Kishida sits in joint-sixth place with just 4% of respondents picking him as their preferred PM.
  • The lack of public support for a single candidate could depress the chances of Kishida facing a leadership challenge.
  • It should be noted, though, that the LDP's complex internal faction system does not always bend to public popularity. In the 2021 LDP leadership contest, Kono was the clear favourite among grassroot party members and prefectural chapters, but Kishida won through with the backing of Diet members.
Chart 1. Opinion Polling, Preferred PM (LDP), %

Source: ANN, @asiaelects. Fieldwork: 25-26 Nov, 1,015 respondents.

To read the full story



MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.