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Lagarde: Data Dependency Is Not Forward Guidance

ECB
Q: Can you explain how to reconcile data dependency with pledge to do more in the future? It is like forward guidance without forward guidance.
  • A: "Data dependency is not forward guidance."
  • Not giving guidance will do something come what may for amount of time - have done that in the past. Now, given baseline judgment in the room is that we are not pausing - that applies to today - we have more ground to cover.
  • Saying that in reference to baseline of March. It is not state/time dependent, it is a judgment made today. Come June/July/Sep will look at data and look at 3 parts of reaction function.
Q2: How do you explain greater emphasis on core inflation as it hasn't been a good leading indicator of headline in the past?
  • A: Had long discussions on core and underlying inflation. Core is easy to communicate - take out food and energy. But want to go deeper into index and have multiple measurements, trim, etc.
  • Looking at those, what is the likely evolution of future inflation? Headline matters to people, people see all prices increasing.
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