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Lagarde Speech: Analysts Mixed On Dovish vs Hawkish Tone

ECB

Reminder, ECB Pres Lagarde delivers a speech at Jackson Hole at 1500ET / 2000UK / 2100CET. Here are a few analyst views on what to expect (note all previews were written prior to Fed Chair Powell's speech):

  • Commerzbank: "Given the deteriorating economic outlook in the euro area, which contrasts with the ECB's expected acceleration of growth in the second half of the year, she could provide more dovish pointers than Powell, who is likely to stick to the "soft landing" scenario for the US economy."
  • UniCredit: "We do not expect Ms. Lagarde to provide any clear hints about the September rate decision, given that further important data will be published before the meeting (especially the flash estimate for August inflation) and as the updated staff forecasts are not yet available to the Governing Council. Therefore, she might decide to focus on the need for the ECB to show persistence in maintaining a restrictive monetary policy until inflation is well on track to hit 2%."
  • ING: "Lagarde has to deal with a worsening economic outlook in the eurozone, but we suspect she will stick to data dependency and a hawkish tone."

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