Landing Zone In Sight For LPF/State Aid, Fisheries 'Very Difficult': RTE

Latest tweet thread from RTE's Tony Connelly on Brexit talks:

• While both sides have a way to go, on the level playing field/state aid there is a landing zone in sight. On fisheries, both sides say that is "very difficult". It looks as if all the energy is going into the LPF and once cracked, they'll barrel into the fisheries stuff. Governance, or how to solve disputes, looks like it has been more or less done
• However, the question of a review clause (or sunset clause) which is primarily about the fishing arrangements is still in there, and it will still embrace the wider FTA. That's why in recent days Barnier has been linking "access to waters" with "access to markets". In other words, if we have a fisheries review in 5 yrs time to take stock of quota share + access, the EU can also assess whether the LPF has remained level.
• The question is, how do you formulate a legal mechanism linking fisheries and a general review of the FTA. It's not clear that the UK is fully on board with the idea at all...On fisheries, both sides are stuck at their opening positions: roughly speaking, the EU is offering up to 18pc of the €650m worth of shared stocks caught in UK waters; the UK is seeking 80pc.
• If they get LPF over the line then fish will be a classic numbers negotiation. But UK sources warn the EU not to underestimate the strength of feeling about fish. The EU mood has been soured by a UK paper tabled Dec 6 with a raft of demands on ownership of UK-flagged boats, requirements that crews will all have to be British + that fish will need to be landed in the UK for processing. There's even been some suggestion that the fish element might have to wait until the new year, but this is unlikely to fly as the EU wd lose its leverage.
• In parallel there are simmering tensions in the European Parliament over being asked to ratify a treaty it hasn't had time to scrutinise. Some MEPs believe the EP should downright refuse to ratify by the end of Dec.
• The EP Conference of Presidents (CoP ie, the heads of the political groups) will discuss options tomorrow morning. Only the president of the EP can call a plenary, but the CoP gets to set the agenda of a plenary. The EP is dead against provisional application and the European Commission is also reluctant.
• However provisional application is the prerogative of member states (the Council). Provisional application is a highly likely outcome because (a) we don't know when a deal will be done (b) each MS has its own procedures.
• If a deal gets over the line this weekend (and that's now what people are speculating about) then the EU institutions will probably try to squeeze out as much activity in the coming days in time for a plenary consent vote by the EP on Dec 28. But that all depends on fish and what the CoP in the EP is minded to do tomorrow morning
• It's understood President von der Leyen is exerting pressure on various parts of the Commission to ensure stuff is done on time or as quickly as humanly possible All told, things could reach a denouement this weekend.