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Lane Calls For October Patience

ECB
  • Speaking on CNBC, ECB’s Lane notes the ECB will hike over several months not few weeks and that there is no direct read across from the UK to Euro Area.
  • Whilst he sees reaching a version of neutral as a must if today’s data persist, it’s not helpful to discuss the size of the October hike four weeks out [ECB-dated OIS currently pricing a 70bp hike before gets rates just shy of 2% by year-end] nor is there need to take a strong view today on rates in 2023.
  • That's in contrast to a plethora of calls earlier today, with Rehn advocating 50bp or 75bp hikes in coming months, Muller seeing something similar to the last two hikes as appropriate, Simkus calling for 75bp with 50bp as a minimum and Kazaks seeing a big step in October as appropriate whilst looking to get to the upper side of neutral by year-end.
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  • Speaking on CNBC, ECB’s Lane notes the ECB will hike over several months not few weeks and that there is no direct read across from the UK to Euro Area.
  • Whilst he sees reaching a version of neutral as a must if today’s data persist, it’s not helpful to discuss the size of the October hike four weeks out [ECB-dated OIS currently pricing a 70bp hike before gets rates just shy of 2% by year-end] nor is there need to take a strong view today on rates in 2023.
  • That's in contrast to a plethora of calls earlier today, with Rehn advocating 50bp or 75bp hikes in coming months, Muller seeing something similar to the last two hikes as appropriate, Simkus calling for 75bp with 50bp as a minimum and Kazaks seeing a big step in October as appropriate whilst looking to get to the upper side of neutral by year-end.