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Lane Says Won't Front-Run Policy Decisions

ECB
  • Whatever future rate decisions take into account, there's a multitude of factors to consider. Negative rates are different, but would disagree with theory that rate hikes come with diminishing returns. We've noted more and more corporate (and household) deposits are paying negative rates. As such NIRP is more effective now than in the past.
  • On APP/taper, Lane says I'm not going to front-run decisions, repeats previously cited three different inflation regimes, response will depend on which outcome comes to fruition.
  • On owner-occupied housing, Lane says he thinks owner-occupied housing costs are/were underweighted in cost indices. Housing costs heavily impacted by commodities, energy shock. ECB have clear vision of cost index that incorporates this. We know this measure will show higher inflation, but difficult question to know whether forward looking inflation horizon will be nudged by this.

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