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Large Divergence Between CPI and PPI Airfares

US DATA
  • Some of the impact from the PPI miss is however offset by a large gap between PPI and CPI airfares, printing +1.1% M/M vs the -8.1% for CPI (PPI feeds into core PCE).
  • Recall that the drop in CPI airfares dragged -0.06pps from M/M core CPI in June for a relative drag of -0.04pps after the -0.02pp from May.
  • Citi post-CPI had been at the high end of early core PCE estimates we’d seen, having noted: “A more modest decline in PPI airfares, strength in medical services prices, and a rebound in portfolio management fees leave us to expect that core PCE will still rise by around 0.25-0.3% in June”.

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