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Large Part Of Initially Dovish React To Labor Cost Moderation Reversed

STIR
  • Fed Funds implied rates were helped lower by a modest miss for the ECI building on slower ADP employment growth and pay gains, but have since pared most of the decline.
  • Today’s FOMC decision aside, implied rates are only 0.5bp lower since ECI.
  • The 28bp for September remains off recent extremes which saw as much as 31.5bp priced last week prior to GDP strength.
  • Cumulative cuts from 5.33% effective: 1bp for today’s decision, 28bp Sep, 45bp Nov, 68bp Dec and 87bp Jan.

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