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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US DATA
Some big seasonal adjustments at play in that retail sales report - Jan 2022 saw the biggest M/M decline in NSA retail sales series history back to 1992 (-$131.8B), which worked out to an increase of $23.5B in SA terms.
- That sort of discrepancy is what you'd expect for January of course, as the holiday shopping effect reverses. But this was easily the biggest difference in series history, and comes after the 2nd biggest gap (in the other direction, with NSA higher than SA) in Dec 2021.
- With the seasonal adjustment doing such heavy lifting in the beat vs expectations, and especially when inflation is running at such a high clip that the nominal figures are skewed to the upside, it's tough to pull a definitive macro signal from these data and that may help explain the lack of hawkish market reaction.
- Here's the M/M change for SA vs NSA:
Source: FRED, St Louis Fed
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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