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BoE Fiscal Assumptions In Focus


(U1) Clears to New 2021 Highs


Can't Catch A Break


Local Matters Eyed After Tsy Driven Swings

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  • So overall largely in line with expectations - 8-1 vote (Haldane dissenting for reduction in QE but no one joined him so GBPUSD lower and gilts higher as that tail risk is avoided).
  • Near-term growth revised higher, inflation seen to peak higher and "was likely toexceed 3% for a temporary period" but no real concern in the wording...This is the main part on inflation from a global side: "The Committee's expectation was that the direct impact of rises in commodity prices on CPI inflation would be transitory. More generally, the Committee's central expectation was that the economy would experience a temporary period of strong GDP growth and above-target CPI inflation, after which growth and inflation would fall back."
  • And on the balance of risks to policy "Although downside risks were judged to have fallen as the recovery had taken hold, these considerations still had force."