SWEDEN
The Swedish current account surplus rose to SEK111.9bln in Q4, up from SEK92.3bln in Q3 . On a 4Q rolling basis, the current account surplus was 7.4% of nominal GDP (vs 7.5% in Q3).
- The constituent components of the current account were largely stable. The goods surplus ticked down to 6.1% GDP (vs 6.2% in Q3), while the services deficit also fell slightly to 1.3% GDP (vs 1.5% in Q3).
- The primary income surplus rose a tenth to 4.4% (vs 4.3% prior), while the secondary income deficit deepened to 1.8% (vs 1.5% prior).
- The financial account registered a net lending balance of SEK347.8bln (vs SEK138.0bln in Q3). The 4Q rolling sum totalled 13.8% GDP, up from 9.7% in Q3 for a fresh all-time high. This reflected large increases in net direct investment outflows (1.5% GDP vs 0.1% in Q3) and net portfolio investment outflows (9.2% GDP vs 3.4% prior). Other investment outflows eased to 2.6% (vs 6.3% in Q3).
- The net international investment position increased to SEK4,253.8bln (vs SEK3,336,6bln in Q3), corresponding to 66% of nominal GDP. The SEK effective exchange rate weakened through 2024, which Statistics Sweden notes increased the value of foreign assets. SEK strength at the start of 2025 will thus have the opposite impact going forward.
- Danske Bank have highlighted that “the Swedish savings-investment balance continues to generate net equity outflows”, which are “fundamentally SEK negative”. However, they note that “the recent news on the consolidation of the AP funds might prompt SEK-positive reallocations flows in 2025”.
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